GDP Influence On Markets
If the figure increases, then the economy is improving, and thus the dollar tends to strengthen. If the number falls short of expectations or meets the consensus, dollar bearishness may be triggered. This sort of reaction is again tied to interest rates, as traders expect an accelerating economy, consumers will be affected by inflation and consequently interest rates will rise. However, much like the CPI, a negative change in GDP is more difficult to trade; just because the pace of growth has slowed does not mean it has deteriorated. On the other hand, a better than expected number will usually result in the dollar rising as it implicates that a quickly expanding economy will sooner or later require higher interest rates to keep inflation in check. Overall though, the GDP has fallen in significance and its ability to move markets since most of the components of the report are known in advance
Due to the untimeliness of this report and because data on GDP components are available beforehand, the actual GDP figure is usually well anticipated. But given its overall significance GDP has the tendency to move the market upon release, acting to confirm or upset economic expectations. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of activity that is generally associated with a healthy economy. However economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead to monetary policy tightening.
Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:
GDP = C + I + G + (EX IM)
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services
The figure is commonly reported in headlines as an annualized percentage, based on quarterly data.
On a technical note: The GDP can be reported in either real or nominal terms, real GDP being adjusted for inflation. GDP actually has three releases, as an Advanced, Preliminary, and Final figure. The Advanced figure is released four weeks following the quarter end. One month later, the Preliminary GDP is released, followed by the Final GDP measure at the end of the quarter following the reporting quarter. As the most timely measure, the Advanced GDP tends to move markets the most.
PT. Mentari Mulia Berjangka | Rekomendasi Pialang Berjangka Terpercaya« Back to Glossary Index